Good Late Wednesday Evening, Chief Meteorologist Mike Sils here as we wind down on the rain showers as a Cold Front is trying to sag Southeast as we speak.

This front will have a hard time to push farther South to bring in drier air, but it doesn’t have enough wind energy to mix out. Thus the front will stay put as we roll into Thursday.

Temperatures will fluctuate as to whether you get scattered showers, more clouds vs less showers and more Sun.

I did mention a stalled front all week, well the front will once again be with us and that’ll act as a trigger mechanism for storm chances into the Afternoon. Majority of storms likely will be along the front since there is no wind energy with this one, so best region should be along & East of I-65.

FRIDAY

It’s not highlighted by SPC yet, but I can see them highlighting a round of Strong Storms (some severe) potential as a Strong MidLevel Shortwave ejects out of Texas and will move Northeast toward MS/OH Rivers by Friday Afternoon. The MidLevel energy at 500mb looks rather weak ~ 35-40kts, but 850mb Low Level Jet is decent to get storms growing

Now keep in mind with fresh data rolling in, the Mesoscale NAM model is indicating a slightly higher run in intensity than the HRRR. NAM suggests higher Mid Level and Low Level energy with the Wind, so we can’t necessarily overlook just yet. Airmass recovery remains key; if we destabilize with Some sun, higher severity… too far out to know just yet. BUT, here is what the radar could show by the NAM.

What I do know is Rain and Storms likely on FRIDAY. Gusty winds likely, small hail and heavy rainfall will be a given. The “spinning” mechanism is still too low on confidence but let’s see how Thursdays data rolls in, tomorrow.

-Mike